Agreed with all that, not seeing anything controversial or questionable. But I do have one question. Why are many EU military leaders, such as those in Poland and Germany, talking about the threat from Russia in coming years?
Far as I can tell, Russia is draining their men and materiel. How are they to be more of a threat in the next few years? I’m all for EU arming up against Russia, but I can’t see a credible threat any time soon. What do they know that I don’t?
Several likely scenarios are possible, and we need to account for all of them. Russia is still producing massive amounts of war equipment every day and many reports are suggesting that a lot of it is not going to Ukraine anymore. Same reports suggest Russia is also training new troops that are not sent to Ukraine. So in the scenario that Ukraine does not win and the Russian economy holds up for a while longer than expected, we are in big trouble. We can’t take the risk of just assuming that Russia will collapse.
A lot of countries looking to push imperialism usually start small to give their military some practical experience and pursue larger wars later on. Russia has had two wars with Ukraine, one war in Syria, and various Wagner Group conflicts in Africa. It is also likely that the current Ukrainian war isn’t going to result in antebellum borders but a pyrrhic victory.
Russia may not go to war with the EU/NATO within a few years, but it is becoming more probable, especially as Putin is starting more of his political justification on Making Russia Strong Again. A Russian military with combat experience and modern tactics may be able to overpower a larger and richer neighbor with a peacetime military and outdated doctrine. That’s how Nazi Germany defeated France in World War II.
My guess is that they’re trying to garner support for the idea that incursions into Russia to stop putin is the next step if/when Ukraine wins. I don’t think the rest of the EU would go through with it unless they believed that Russia needs to be further broken up or liberated from autocrat rule.
Yikes. Being called Russian propaganda for just speculating.
Fwiw I agree with you, no serious politician or officer would. Things like this just start out as an idea, maybe not even a realistic one. I’m fairly certain that if there ever was a threat of taking land from Russia, then China would step in.
I think China has a interest in keeping Russia as a vassal state if Russia falls that far. They have a lot of useful resources and it’s easier to own them in that way while providing “protection” than to have to deal with annexing and everything that comes with that.
South Eastern parts could be annexed fairly easily, true. But I don’t know if there are any interesting resources in the rest of Russia that China has interest in.
Agreed with all that, not seeing anything controversial or questionable. But I do have one question. Why are many EU military leaders, such as those in Poland and Germany, talking about the threat from Russia in coming years?
Far as I can tell, Russia is draining their men and materiel. How are they to be more of a threat in the next few years? I’m all for EU arming up against Russia, but I can’t see a credible threat any time soon. What do they know that I don’t?
Several likely scenarios are possible, and we need to account for all of them. Russia is still producing massive amounts of war equipment every day and many reports are suggesting that a lot of it is not going to Ukraine anymore. Same reports suggest Russia is also training new troops that are not sent to Ukraine. So in the scenario that Ukraine does not win and the Russian economy holds up for a while longer than expected, we are in big trouble. We can’t take the risk of just assuming that Russia will collapse.
Their industrial manufacturing capability is completely ramped up and they are running a war economy.
Only reason they are able to go on this long is because they are rapidly replenishing their man and material resources.
A lot of countries looking to push imperialism usually start small to give their military some practical experience and pursue larger wars later on. Russia has had two wars with Ukraine, one war in Syria, and various Wagner Group conflicts in Africa. It is also likely that the current Ukrainian war isn’t going to result in antebellum borders but a pyrrhic victory.
Russia may not go to war with the EU/NATO within a few years, but it is becoming more probable, especially as Putin is starting more of his political justification on Making Russia Strong Again. A Russian military with combat experience and modern tactics may be able to overpower a larger and richer neighbor with a peacetime military and outdated doctrine. That’s how Nazi Germany defeated France in World War II.
Don’t forget Georgia
Nothing brother, you are right, there is no credible threat. Propaganda exists from all sides, this is european propaganda.
My guess is that they’re trying to garner support for the idea that incursions into Russia to stop putin is the next step if/when Ukraine wins. I don’t think the rest of the EU would go through with it unless they believed that Russia needs to be further broken up or liberated from autocrat rule.
No serious politicans nor militarty officers in the EU, nor NATO are talking about invading Russia.
Such threat is a part of Russian propaganda, and is against the principle purpose of NATO.
Yikes. Being called Russian propaganda for just speculating.
Fwiw I agree with you, no serious politician or officer would. Things like this just start out as an idea, maybe not even a realistic one. I’m fairly certain that if there ever was a threat of taking land from Russia, then China would step in.
I didn’t call you a propaga dist, I said that Russia uses that concept of an impending NATO invasion as propaganda.
Incidentally, that propaganda is traditionally more internally focused, than external.
I had no idea.
What makes you think that China would step in?
China could join in and take South-Eastern parts of Russia, where the poulation are very asian, and were historically Chinese aligned.
I think China has a interest in keeping Russia as a vassal state if Russia falls that far. They have a lot of useful resources and it’s easier to own them in that way while providing “protection” than to have to deal with annexing and everything that comes with that.
South Eastern parts could be annexed fairly easily, true. But I don’t know if there are any interesting resources in the rest of Russia that China has interest in.
First I’ve heard that take! I’d be all for dismantling Russia, but it’s not my dollars or ass on the line.